energy · resolves 2026-11-30
Will the UK government give final approval to the Jackdaw North Sea gasfield by 2026-11-30?
97%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, UK energy approvals for North Sea projects take several months, so a 50 % chance they would be finalized by the end of November 2026. Latest evidence: Multiple Guardian reports dated 20‑21 October 2026 state that the government has already approved the Jackdaw gasfield, with the Energy Secretary and the Prime Minister publicly confirming the decision.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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