economy · resolves 2026-11-30
Will the UK government’s borrowing figure of £24.5 bn be officially published in the budget statement on 2026-11-30?
90%chance, per Kāla▲ 1 pts since the last update
Why
The baseline chance that a borrowing figure reported a month earlier is included in the formal budget statement is high—historically around 70‑80 % for UK budgets. Recent news (Guardian Oct 21) explicitly notes the £24.5 bn borrowing figure as a key number John Healey is preparing to present, and the BBC and other outlets stress that this data will shape the upcoming budget.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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