world · resolves 2026-11-25
Will the UK Ministry of Defence deploy fighter jets to Saudi Arabia to protect against Houthi attacks by 2026‑11‑25?
86%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically the UK has rarely deployed combat aircraft abroad solely for defensive air‑cover of another sovereign state, so the prior probability of such a deployment by a specific date is modest.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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