world · resolves 2026-11-22
Will the UK Ministry of Defence officially deploy fighter jets to Saudi Arabia by 2026-11-22?
86%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically the UK has been reluctant to commit combat aircraft abroad without clear parliamentary approval, so a modest baseline probability of deployment by late November 2026 would be around 30 %.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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