economy · resolves 2026-12-01
Will the UK’s unemployment rate stay at or below 4.7% in the ONS report released on 2026-12-01?
66%chance, per Kāla▲ 6 pts since the last update
Why
Base rate: Historically the UK unemployment rate hovers around 4‑5%, with occasional dips below 4.7% but also rebounds above it. Latest evidence: ONS data released on 20 Oct 2026 shows the rate falling to 4.7% from 4.9%, indicating a recent downward trend. What must still happen: The labour market would need to avoid a sudden shock (e.g., major layoffs or a slowdown in hiring) between October and the 1 Dec release for the rate to stay at or below 4.7%.
Based on 11 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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