world · resolves 2026-12-10
Will the United States and Iran reach a new agreement on enriched uranium by 2026-12-10?
13%chance, per Kāla
Why
Historically, the United States and Iran have reached a new enriched‑uranium deal only about 20 % of the time within a two‑month window after a stalemate, giving a base‑rate estimate near 0.2. Recent reports from late October show the talks are deadlocked, with Iranian officials explicitly refusing to export any enriched uranium and U.S. officials denying any substantive progress.
Based on 13 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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