economy · resolves 2026-11-10
Will the urban unemployment rate for July-September 2026, as reported in the Quarterly Bulletin of PLFS released by MoSPI on 2026-11-10, be below 7%?
62%chance, per Kāla
Why
Monthly data for August and September 2026 show urban unemployment at 6.8% and 6.9%, and the previous quarter was 6.7%. The trend is slightly upward, suggesting the quarterly figure could hover near 7% and may just exceed it. Hence the likelihood of it staying under 7% is modest, roughly 40%.
Based on 23 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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