economy · resolves 2026-11-06
Will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report a non-farm payroll increase of 200,000 or more for October 2026, as released on November 6, 2026?
7%chance, per Kāla
Why
Recent payroll data show very weak job growth (e.g., 29 k in September) and consensus forecasts for October 2026 are around 56 k. Historical patterns suggest gains of 200 k or more are rare in the current slowdown, so a large jump is improbable.
Based on 28 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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