economy · resolves 2026-11-17
Will the US Census Bureau's Retail Sales report for October 2026, released on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, show a month-over-month increase in total retail sales (seasonally adjusted)?
68%chance, per Kāla
Why
Recent data show retail sales rising 1.3% in August and 0.8% in September. Economic forecasts point to continued consumer spending into Q4. Given this momentum and a historical tendency for modest month‑over‑month gains, the odds favor an increase in October.
Based on 31 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-24 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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