economy · resolves 2026-11-10
Will the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rate for October 2026, as released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 10, 2026, be below 3.7%?
39%chance, per Kāla
Why
September 2026 CPI was 3.7% YoY and forecasts for Q4 2026 hover around 3.6‑3.8%. Energy price volatility and a Fed rate path suggest modest upside, making a sub‑3.7% outcome less likely but still possible.
Based on 33 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-23 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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