economy · resolves 2026-11-06
Will the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for October 2026, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 6, 2026, show job gains exceeding 150,000?
24%chance, per Kāla
Why
Recent NFP data show a sharp slowdown, with September 2026 reporting only 29,000 jobs and forecasts for October around 60,000. While historically the U.S. posts >150k gains in roughly 70% of months, the current softening and tight monetary policy make a large gain unlikely.
Based on 29 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-23 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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