world · resolves 2026-12-01

Will the US State Department confirm that 300,000 visas were revoked under the Trump administration by 2026-12-01?

22%chance, per Kāla▼ 64 pts since the last update

Why

Base‑rate: Historically the State Department rarely issues a formal, public confirmation of large‑scale visa revocations that were carried out under a previous administration, especially when the figure comes from partisan statements. Latest evidence: Multiple outlets on Oct 20‑21 2026 report that a Trump‑era official claimed “over 300,000 visas were revoked,” but none cite an official State Department press release or statement confirming that exact number.

Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.

India's week ahead, every Monday. The top forecasts, the biggest moves and last week's results, free by email.

Related forecasts

AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?