politics · resolves 2026-11-25
Will Trump’s approval rating fall below 30% in the latest Gallup poll released on 2026-11-25?
31%chance, per Kāla▲ 4 pts since the last update
Why
Base rate: Historically, incumbent U.S. presidents’ approval ratings rarely dip below 30% in Gallup polls, but Trump’s ratings have been unusually low in 2026. Latest evidence: A poll on 2026‑10‑21 reported Trump’s approval at 36%, with a clear downward trend as the midterms approach.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
India's week ahead, every Monday. The top forecasts, the biggest moves and last week's results, free by email.
Related forecasts
- Will the Delhi High Court grant a further 3‑day custody extension for NTK functionary Karthika after 2026-10-24? 67%
- Will the AP municipal poll final list be announced by the SEC before 2026-10-25? 16%
- Will the Fed’s October 2026 policy statement cite AI‑driven inflation as a primary concern? 4%
- Will the Andhra Pradesh State Election Commission announce the final list of candidates for the MPTC and ZPTC polls by 2026-10-27? 78%
- Will the Indian Ministry of Railways publish the revised parcel‑fare discount schedule for the festive season by 2026-10-27? 42%
- Will the Jio IPO close on 2026-10-27 with the Rs 2,500 cr RIL shareholder quota filled? 86%
AI-generated forecast for information only: not betting, financial, legal or investment advice. No money is involved. How accurate is Kāla?