politics · resolves 2026-12-01
Will Trump’s lawsuit over Canadian tariffs be dismissed by a US federal court by 2026-12-01?
30%chance, per Kāla▼ 12 pts since the last update
Why
Base‑rate: Historically, about 70 % of high‑profile trade‑authority suits against a president are ultimately dismissed, but dismissals usually take many months to materialize. Latest evidence: The lawsuit was just filed on 20 Oct 2026; no court ruling has been issued yet and the case will first go through pleadings and possibly a summary‑judgment motion, which typically takes longer than the six‑week window to 1 Dec 2026.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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