world · resolves 2026-12-10
Will Turkiye ratify the Mecca defence pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia by 2026-12-10?
78%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, new trilateral defence agreements in the region take several months to a year to complete ratification, so a rough 50 % chance of ratification within two months. Recent evidence: On 20 Oct 2026 Al Jazeera reported that Turkey is moving to ratify the Mecca defence pact, and subsequent reports discuss implementation details, suggesting political momentum toward completion.
Based on 9 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-20 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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