economy · resolves 2026-12-01
Will U.S. mortgage rates fall below 6.5% for the first time in 2026 by 2026-12-01?
15%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, U.S. 30‑year mortgage rates have stayed above 6.5% throughout 2026, with only modest pullbacks. Latest evidence: As of 22 Oct 2026 the average rate was 7.32% and, while it eased for the first time since August, there is no sign of a rapid decline toward sub‑6.5% levels.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 3 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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