economy · resolves 2026-12-01
Will UK fuel price increases push inflation to exactly 3.5% by the next quarterly report on 2026-12-01?
68%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base‑rate: Historically, UK headline inflation has hovered around 3‑4% in late‑2026, with quarterly CPI reports typically moving by a few tenths of a point unless a major shock occurs. Latest evidence: ONS data released on 21 Oct 2026 shows inflation already at 3.5% in September, driven largely by higher fuel prices linked to the Iran‑related oil price surge.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-21 · 4 updates · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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