politics · resolves 2026-10-31
Will Jair Bolsonaro file a formal petition to annul the 2026 presidential election results with the Brazilian Supreme Court by 2026-10-31?
63%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Historically, Brazilian candidates who lose close elections rarely file formal petitions to annul results, so the prior probability of such a filing is modest. Latest evidence: Multiple news reports on 2026‑10‑26 state that Jair Bolsonaro has publicly refused to concede and is calling for the election to be annulled, indicating strong intent to challenge the outcome.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-26 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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