business · resolves 2026-11-08
Will Marc Lore’s company Wonder file for an IPO before 2026-11-08?
20%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base rate: Most startups that only “mull” an IPO do not file within a two‑week window, so the prior chance of filing by early November is low (≈20%). Latest evidence: A CNBC story on 2026‑10‑25 says Wonder is “leaning into automation… as founder Marc Lore prepares the startup for a potential IPO,” but it only indicates intent, not that a filing has been made. No filing announcement has appeared in the news since then.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-25 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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