politics · resolves 2026-10-30
Will the Brazilian Electoral Court officially certify Lula's re‑election by 2026-10-30?
88%chance, per Kāla
Why
Base‑rate: Historically Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) certifies presidential results within a few days after the final count, so the chance of certification by Oct 30 is already high (≈ 80 %). Latest evidence: Multiple news outlets on Oct 26 report that the TSE announced Lula’s victory with 100 % of votes counted, indicating the official result is already declared and certification is imminent.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-26 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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