economy · resolves 2026-11-01
Will the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) flash estimate for October 2026, released by Eurostat on November 1, 2026, show year-on-year inflation below 2.5%?
9%chance, per Kāla
Why
September 2026 HICP inflation was 3.8% YoY and rising, driven by strong energy and food price pressures. With no sign of a sharp reversal before the November 1 release, the odds that the October flash estimate falls below 2.5% are low.
Based on 22 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-25 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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