politics · resolves 2026-10-27
Will the final poll on 2026-10-27 show Bolsonaro ahead of Lula?
Why
Base‑rate: In Brazilian presidential run‑offs, incumbents win roughly 60 % of the time, but recent polls have shown an unusually tight race. Latest evidence: The most recent CNT/MDA poll on 25 Oct shows Bolsonaro ahead 46.3 % to 45 % and several outlets report the candidates “neck‑and‑neck” heading into the 27 Oct vote. What must still happen: Bolsonaro would need to maintain or widen this slight edge in the final days; any late swing toward Lula would erase the lead.
Based on 14 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-25 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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