economy · resolves 2026-11-03
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate to 4.85% at its meeting on November 3, 2026?
77%chance, per Kāla
Why
The RBA’s cash rate is 4.60% and inflation remains above target. Hawkish comments from Deputy Governor Hauser and recent minutes signal a willingness to tighten further. Market futures show a 56% probability of a 25‑bp hike, suggesting the balance of evidence leans toward a rate increase, though uncertainty remains.
Based on 26 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-26 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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