economy · resolves 2026-11-12
Will the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2026, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics around November 12, 2026, show a year-on-year inflation rate below 3.5%?
46%chance, per Kāla
Why
Recent data show September 2026 CPI at 3.7% YoY, while consensus forecasts for Q4 2026 hover around 3.4%. Energy price volatility could push it higher, but the downward trend and Fed tightening suggest a modest probability of falling under 3.5%. I estimate a roughly 58% likelihood.
Based on 36 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-25 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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