economy · resolves 2026-11-17
Will Statistics Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2026, released on November 17, 2026, show a year-on-year inflation rate below 3.0%?
41%chance, per Kāla
Why
Recent CPI data show headline inflation at 3.1% in September 2026, but core measures are near 1.9%. Forecasts from the PBO (2.8%), RBC (2.7%) and some market analysts point to sub‑3% inflation by October, while others (e.g., Oxford Economics) expect mid‑3% levels. Weighing these, the balance tilts toward a below‑3% outcome, though upside risks remain.
Based on 28 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-27 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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