environment · resolves 2026-11-20
Will the COP31 Presidency release a formal statement by November 20, 2026, confirming that at least 50% of participating nations have submitted strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) since COP30?
92%chance, per Kāla
Why
Recent UNFCCC data shows well over half of the Parties have filed updated NDCs, and the Presidency has signaled a focus on implementation and NDC ambition ahead of the Antalya summit. A formal statement by the 20 Nov deadline is therefore probable.
Based on 22 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-27 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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