politics · resolves 2026-11-06
Will the Democratic Party retain majority control of the US Senate following the 2026 US Midterm Elections, with the outcome determined by the official results confirmed by the U.S. Federal Election Commission by November 6, 2026?
67%chance, per Kāla
Why
Current forecasts give Democrats a clear edge: Decision Desk HQ puts them at 57% chance, FiftyPlusOne at 73%, and FiveThirtyEight projects 52 seats. Republicans would need to limit losses to two seats, but many key races are rated toss‑ups or leaning Democratic. Overall, the balance of evidence points to a Democratic majority, though uncertainty remains.
Based on 27 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-27 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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