politics · resolves 2026-11-06
Will the Republican Party win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 Midterm Elections, with the official results confirmed by the U.S. Federal Election Commission by November 6, 2026?
10%chance, per Kāla
Why
Current polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by 8‑10 points on the generic congressional ballot, and the president’s low approval rating historically predicts losses for the president’s party in midterms. Historical trends and the political environment suggest a low probability of a Republican House majority.
Based on 24 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-27 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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