economy · resolves 2026-11-06
Will the US Unemployment Rate for October 2026, as released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on November 6, 2026, be below 3.8%?
5%chance, per Kāla
Why
The September 2026 rate was 4.2% and recent forecasts place October 2026 around 4.2‑4.3%. Given the narrow recent range (4.1‑4.3%) and no strong signals of a sharp drop, the chance of falling below 3.8% is small, roughly one in ten.
Based on 13 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-27 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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