economy · resolves 2026-11-15
Will the year-on-year inflation rate for the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2026, as released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on November 15, 2026, be above 4.0%?
44%chance, per Kāla
Why
Current data show CPI at 3.5% in September 2026 and forecasts for Q4 2026 range from 3.4% to 3.9%, with most institutions expecting the peak to occur in early 2027. This makes it more likely that the October 2026 CPI will stay under the 4.0% threshold, though a modest chance of a surprise upward move remains.
Based on 27 dated sources · first forecast 2026-10-27 · 1 update · locked in and fingerprinted before the answer is known.
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