Scoreboard
Every forecast Ask Kāla makes is saved when it's made, including about ten it makes on its own each morning about public events due in the next few weeks. Once the question resolves, we check what actually happened and score it here, misses included. Nothing is edited after the fact.
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How scoring works
Which forecasts count: the first answer to each question, if it gave a probability, a choice, a number or a date about something not yet known. Questions already settled when asked, refusals and open-ended essays aren't scored.
Kāla's daily forecasts: each morning Kāla picks about ten public questions that settle within 1–4 weeks and that are genuinely uncertain (nothing above about 90% or below about 10%), and answers them exactly as it would for you. They're labelled, so you can compare them with questions users asked.
Checking the outcome: after the question's date passes, an automated check searches the web for what happened and only counts it when reliable sources report it clearly (shown below each result). Unclear outcomes are retried for 30 days.
Yes/no and choice questions use the Brier score: the squared gap between the stated probability and what happened. 0 is perfect; always saying 50% scores 0.25, so lower than 0.25 means better than a coin flip. Numbers and dates count as right when the real value falls inside Kāla's stated range.
Privacy: question text is shown only for public events with no personal details. Other questions count in the totals as "a private question". No one's identity is ever shown.
Tamper-proof record
Every day, each forecast on record is turned into a fingerprint (a SHA-256 hash of the forecast exactly as it was made), and the day's list of fingerprints is timestamped with OpenTimestamps, which anchors it in the Bitcoin blockchain. Nobody, including us, can backdate a forecast or change one after the fact without the fingerprints failing to match.
To check: download a day's file and its proof below, then drop both onto opentimestamps.org to see the date it existed. Each resolved forecast above shows its fingerprint and the day it was first recorded; for public questions, "check" shows the exact fields that were hashed (keys sorted, no spaces), so you can recompute it yourself.